The Trendiness of Technology Trends – Wallace McLendon

I’ve tracked technology trends for the past 5 years to prepare a CE course taught periodically for the Medical Library Association. The context of my trend tracking is to determine if and how one can plan for emerging technologies. In my tracking I’ve observed that in November and December articles, reports, blogs, etc., spill over with technology predictions for the coming year. My second observation is that there is nothing magical about technology changes during a twelve month period and most trends don’t conform to these time limits. Rather than observe annual occurrences, it would be more valuable to identify early adopters who have a knack for applying new technologies in new ways to solve problems or arrive at a service no one knew they needed regardless of the time taken. Then there are also lessons to be learned from those who wait until a technology has earned its patina before using it outside its intended purpose.

Ten years ago tracking technology was easier. A technology – like PDAs – flew solo, independent of other technologies, like a bird flying outside of a flock. Now technology is immersed in the flock and the flock moves as if each technology is connected. The pattern of a single technology is not as interesting or revealing as it used to be, even if we were able to extract it from the circuits and chips it shares.

In doing research during my undergraduate years, I happened across 1915-1916 newspapers with daily, front-page headlines announcing the number of electrocutions caused by the careless hanging of new electrical lines. One article specifically blamed an electrocution due to a town’s decision to hang lines 10 feet high. One can imagine cities and organizations creating an “electrification task force” to determine where electricity should go and what would or should be the next work function to be electrified. In the early 80’s our organization received its first fax machine. A committee was formed and we met 5 or 6 times to develop polices, procedures and, ultimately, make the weighty decision of where the machine would be located. While these two examples are now humorous, we find ourselves quickly moving into an era where the emergence and the skills to use new technology is more natural; trending and tracking innovations loses its appeal as the creative use of the ubiquitous technology becomes the emphasis.

Just as computer networks must build capacity in order to absorb the next technology, we planners and administrators must think about global changes created by technology trends that have moved past swiss-army-knife convergence to performing integrated functions that are more consumer driven and, thus, naturally fit our need at the appropriate time. We should look at the problems we need solving and prepare for the solutions arrival.

Having discounted the trendiness of tracking technology trends, allow me to participate on a level that is meant to be more provocative than correct. Below is a model to manipulate in order to track new technologies and their impact on library services. The model allows for adding the dimension of “transformation” vs. “revision” of services and/or functions. In the model, I have deliberately left the “effective filtering of email spam” as an example in predicting a technology trend before it begins. To my knowledge, no one has developed a truly effective spam filter so it is obvious that someone will in the near future. Identify a major problem with technology and one identifies a fast approaching innovation. Spam filtering is included here because the algorithms or other means someone develops to filter out trash and save important information will be of great interest to librarians who long to filter out trash and save the important. Libraries should be thinking about what this application might look like and what it may mean for libraries and library patrons.

While we entertain ourselves for a few more years with the November and December predictions for the upcoming year and attempt to create models to make sense of it all, future technological innovations will be a flock of technology changes shifting and darting together over time continuous.

Technology Relevancy to Library Services/Function Scale
(Click to Enlarge)